Kuminga entered the offseason as a Restricted Free Agent, a notoriously under-leveraged position to be in as an NBA player. After a prolonged negotiation, the sides agreed on a contract that gave Kuminga an increased salary this year compared to his qualifying offer, but also made him much more tradable. Now the real work begins to utilize this salary slot to maximize the window for the Warriors’ dynasty.
Kuminga’s 2025 Contract
Kuminga signed a two-year contract in the offseason that includes a guaranteed season and a team option in the second year. Since the Warriors would have the Bird rights for Kuminga if they reject his team option, Kuminga could have had an implicit No-Trade Clause, but he agreed to waive it during the negotiation process.1
Kuminga does have a 15% trade bonus on his contract that would count toward the receiving team’s incoming salary but not Golden State’s outgoing salary in a trade.2 This trade also had to wait until after January 15th because Kuminga was trade restricted until then. 3
Player Situation
If you ask 10 people about what they think Kuminga’s projection is for his future, you will probably get 10 different answers. He has shown flashes of elite abilities and athleticism, but has also shown an inability to integrate himself in Golden State’s style of play. It has gotten to the point that he has been benched at multiple times during his career and has rarely been counted on in critical moments of his career. Therefore, trade rumors have swirled for years and it was widely believe that the ultimate resolution of his restricted free agency would be a sign-and-trade out of Golden State.
Chensiyuan, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
It seems that a trade that Golden state deemed adequate to part ways with a player that they have drafted and developed never materialized. Thus, he returned to Golden state. As a savvy cap maneuver, Golden State did negotiate a friendly deal that essentially makes his contract an expiring one and more tradable to teams looking for flexibility.
With that, a clock started ticking on Thursday, where Kuminga is eligible to be traded in this small window before the trade deadline.
Team’s Perspective
The Warriors have shown nothing to indicate that they are ready for a full-scale tear down and rebuild. What they have shown is that they need to trade Kuminga to get some form of return.
Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
The goal seems to continue to be to build a contender now around Curry and Green. Therefore, it would follow that Kuminga’s salary would need to be stacked with other salaries to bring in a player with a larger salary to compete for a championship in the near future. Doing so would have triggered the 2nd apron hard cap, but signing Horford using the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception already did so.4 They will need to send out more salary than they take in to avoid the 1st apron hard cap.5 I see the following players as plausibly stackable with Kuminga to bring in the sort of player they could be looking for:
Moses Moody - $11,574,075
Buddy Hield - $9,219,512
The Warriors’ draft first round picks are largely unencumbered, except for a top-20 protected pick owed to the Wizards in 2030. This also means that they cannot trade their first round picks in 2029 or 2031 since that would leave the possibility of trading 1st round picks in back to back years.6
What to Expect
While understandable that Kuminga has fallen out of the rotation in a system that doesn’t suit him, this move has also hurt his trade value significantly. I believe that Kuminga’s true value to the Warriors is now as a salary matching piece. It is unlikely that Golden State will be able to acquire major assets in a trade with Kuminga as the centerpiece. It is my expectation that he will be packaged with another chunk of salary and maybe a pick to consolidate for a player with a lager contract.
1 Art. VII Sec. 8(b)
2 Art. XXIV Sec. 2(a)(ii)
3 Art. VII Sec. 8(d)(iii)
4 Art. VII Sec. 2(e)(4)(H & K)
5 Art. VII Sec. 2(e)(4)(E), Art. VII Sec. 6(j)(3)
6 NBA Bylaws 7.03