At The Negotiation Table: Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels had the biggest breakout season in the entire league, establishing himself as a premier perimeter defender just in time for the summer in which he is eligible to sign a Rookie Scale Extension. With any negotiation, there are factors that are favorable to each side. I hope to show how many factors can influence the negotiations and provide a context-based projected salary for Daniels’ extension.

Additionally, the contract no longer needs to be a full max contract to be 5 years in length as in previous CBAs.² Rookie scale extensions must be completed by 6:00 PM ET the day before the regular season begins, in this case October 20.³ As you may notice, the raises are tied to the first year’s salary of the extension and not to the salary cap increases.⁴ It is worth noting that the salary cap projection rumors show an increase of 7% from 25-26 to 26-27 and then anywhere from 4-5% after that. Therefore, a full 8% increase would be outpacing the projected increases in the salary cap.

The Agent

When analyzing how a negotiation may unfold, it is vital to understand all parties at the table. While there are hard facts that can’t be overlooked, we can glean some insight into how this negotiation may unfold by understanding the history of the agent negotiating for the player.

From the players side, understanding what the team has spent recently is a useful negotiation tactic if the players have similar facts. Jalen Johnson had 1 real breakout year with the Hawks before signing his extension. Daniels was traded for in the Dejounte Murray trade with New Orleans and thrived with a single season of increased opportunity. For context, Jalen Johnson signed a 5-year contract extension that is a flat $30,000,000 across all years as listed above.

The 2026 free agency market has been highly anticipated by both teams and players. Teams have been constructing salary decreases and player contracts to have the most amount of cap space for the summer or 2026. I mentioned in my last issue that Bradley Beal has a player option on his second year with the Clippers to re-enter free agency next summer if he plays well enough to increase his market value. On the team side, the most relevant example here is the contract of newly signed Hawk, Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He was signed using a sign-and-trade to sign at an amount above the Non-Taxpayer Midlevel exception in the first year, but the contract dips in the second year, just in time to give the Hawks extra room on their cap sheet for the 2026 free agent class. The Hawks themselves are preparing for the 2026 class, therefore, a rich cap space environment next summer may incentivize the Hawks to keep a dynamic defensive guard from entering the market.

As negotiations develop, there may be no more compelling needle-mover than proven results. Daniels had a prolific season in the steals category which was noticed by awards voters, not to mention league executives. As the Most Improved Player in the 2024-25 season and a legitimate contender for Defensive Player of the Year as a perimeter defender, Daniels has launched himself from a player negotiating based on a projected rotation stalwart status to negotiating as a premier perimeter pest.

Team’s Side

Restricted free agency had some tweaks in this CBA (higher Qualifying Offer⁵, shortened matching window⁶). Looking at the current market, the changes have not given players a great amount of extra power. Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga and Cam Thomas have all had long standoffs in restricted free agency with Thomas even opting to sign his qualifying offer. Signing the qualifying offer would allow for the player to play on a 1-year deal and enter free agency the next year as an unrestricted free agent.⁷ The player also gets an implicit no-trade clause by playing on a 1-year deal and bird rights after the season ends, which would be negated if traded.⁸ This may seem like a win for the player, but the reality is that the player will be playing on a team that refused to pay them an amount that they were satisfied with and with only 1 year to improve their market value while bearing the risk of any injury. All in all, players tend to be adverse to entering restricted free agency.

While the Daniels’ contingent will likely anchor their requests to Jalen Johnson’s contract, it is likely that the Hawks will have a comparison of their own. I believe that a good comp for the team to anchor their offers to would be Lu Dort. Dort was also a young player that had blossomed into a great perimeter defender that was an ideal fit next to the Thunder’s star point guard. The biggest weakness to this argument is Dort coming into the league as an undrafted free agent while Daniels is a former lottery pick. To counter, Atlanta may make the argument that the current role is how values should be based. However, taking a hardline stance like this could jeopardize their relationship with a key part of their roster.

The last negotiation point could cut both ways for Atlanta. Daniels fits well in their scheme and is an ideal running mate for Trae Young in their backcourt. This means that Daniels will see matchups against the best perimeter players every night and playing along side a playmaker in Young that may have been part of the uptick in Daniel’s true shooting percentage. Atlanta may argue that continuing to play in this system would be beneficial to Daniels’ career. On the other hand, the inability to extend Daniels’ may be viewed by the league as a signal of hesitancy in keeping Trae Young long-term by risking the loss of an ideal running mate.

To begin, this is a reminder that I am an NBA Outsider. I have no first, second, or even third-hand knowledge of how the negotiations are actually progressing. What I do have is knowledge of how the cap works and a good background in negotiation tactics.

I believe that the key is where the front office stands on Trae Young. If the front office is not sold on keeping Young as the linchpin of their roster, they may also have reservations about keeping Daniels as their secondary guard, who does not project to be one of the key ballhandlers in an offense, at a higher price tag. In fact, I believe that the Hawks are likely to act on Young’s future before acting on Daniels’. Young is extension eligible through the end of the offseason as well, assuming he does not decline his 2026-27 option during this season.¹²

With that said, I believe that Daniels has a strong argument for receiving a 5-year contract. The Hawks don’t seem to be averse to the idea after signing Jalen Johnson to 5 years at 24 years old with one year of effective production while Daniels’ has proven his value at just 22 years old. Therefore, I am projecting in my cap sheets that Atlanta will be signing Daniels to a 5-year extension. However, if the raise amount ends up being a sticking point with projected cap increases lower than 8%, I believe that Moldovan may be willing to give the Hawks a team option on the 5th year.

As far as where the two sides will land on salary, I don’t believe that the salary will be an average annual value of $30,000,000 as I believe that the Hawks see Jalen Johnson as the secondary ball handler when he is healthy and that likely increased his value in negotiations last year because of it. I also believe that Daniels has more leverage that Dort did at the time of his signing meaning that his percentage will come in a little higher than Dort’s did in 2022.

Therefore, I project that the team and Moldovan will start as low as possible in year 1 so long as the average annual value comes close to the $25 million mark that Moldovan got for Giddey. As such, the final projection that I have penciled in for Daniels is listed above.