Growing up in rural New Mexico, there is a phenomenon that occurs as a storm approaches. While you may hear that a storm is expected, it is not until you see clouds forming on the horizon that you think about whether the storm will bring a much needed replenishment to the aquifer, or if the storm will bring more damage to crops, equipment and property than the added moisture will make up for. This day on the NBA calendar should provide a similar feeling of dread-filled anticipation to NBA fans as we begin to see the metaphorical clouds gather on the horizon of trade season.
This offseason, players moved from team to team in the usual spider web of transactions during free agency. As usual, a lot has changed in teams’ priorities and the market since July. Teams may be looking to improve their depth, or go big game hunting for starters that may become available. No matter what roster building goal teams have, midlevel contracts may be integral in salary matching. This includes player that only months ago teams were welcoming to their city.
Free Agency Trade Restrictions
While many of us think that teams signing players in the offseason are making these signings as long term moves, the NBA season moves fast. Superstars become available in the trade market, teams experience a change of identity, young players emerge, and sometimes the signing just doesn’t work out.
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No matter the reason, newly signed free agents are not eligible to be traded until the later of December 15 of the cap year or three months after the player was signed.1 With the largest flurry of activity coming in the first couple of days of free agency, this means the vast majority of free agents become trade eligible on December 15.2 So what does that mean for the rest of the trade market?
The (Unofficial) Start of Trade Season
While is may be rare that teams are desperate to offload a player that they signed in the offseason, the wave of players becoming trade eligible creates an incredible amount of salary matching power to execute trades. Teams that are above the first apron cannot receive more salary than they are sending out in a trade.3 Teams above the second apron also cannot aggregate players to increase their outgoing salary.5 Teams that are operating above the salary cap but below the aprons can also receive a limited amount of salary based on a percentage of their outgoing salary.4
All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
This means that teams looking to make trades need an arsenal of players with significant salary to execute the majority of major trades. As such, teams with players on the trade block will often wait until this date to wade into the market and find the maximum value that they can get.
Therefore, the 12/15 date has become known as the unofficial kick off to trade season. Team’s now have until February 5 at 3 p.m. Eastern to complete the trades they may have been contemplating for weeks now.
Keep an Eye Out
The following players are some that I think it would be worth keeping an eye on. These players have substantial salaries and have become trade eligible as of today:
Duncan Robinson - $16,834,692
Dorian Finney-Smith - $12,700,000
Brook Lopez - $8,750,000
Dennis Schroder - $14,104,000
Bobby Portis - $13,445,754
All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
1 Art. VII Sec. 8(d)(ii)
2 Art. XI Sec. 1(a)(i-ii)
3 Art. VII Sec. 2(e)(4)(E), Art. VII Sec. 6(j)(3)
4 Art. VII Sec. 6(j)(i, ii,iv)
5 Art. VII Sec. 2(e)(4)(H)